Morss, R. E., O. V. Wilhelmi, G. A. Meehl, and L. Dilling, 2011: Improving societal outcomes of extreme weather in a changing climate: An integrated perspective. Many cities across the Southeast are planning for the impacts sea level rise is likely to have on their infrastructure (see Case Study Charleston, South Carolina, Begins Planning and Reinvesting and Key Message 2). | Percentage Change in Population of Non-Metropolitan Coastal Counties, 2010-2017. When these cities experience high tide coastal flooding due to perigean tides, the tidewater enters the storm water system, which prevents rainwater from entering storm drains and causes increased impacts from flooding. WebThe Southeasts coastal plain and inland low-lying regions support a rapidly growing population, a tourism economy, critical industries, and important cultural resources that are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. In the Southeast, winter temperature extremes, fire regimes, sea level fluctuations, hurricanes, extreme rainfall, and extreme drought all play critical roles and greatly influence the distribution, structure, and function of species and ecosystems. Coastal Plain Reuters Investigates. Sakai, A., and W. Larcher, 1987: Frost Survival of Plants: Responses and Adaptation to Freezing Stress. Mazzotti, F. J., M. S. Cherkiss, M. Parry, J. Beauchamp, M. Rochford, B. Smith, K. Hart, and L. A. Brandt, 2016: Large reptiles and cold temperatures: Do extreme cold spells set distributional limits for tropical reptiles in Florida? Mazzotti, F. J., M. S. Cherkiss, K. M. Hart, R. W. Snow, M. R. Rochford, M. E. Dorcas, and R. N. Reed, 2011: Cold-induced mortality of invasive Burmese pythons in south Florida. Park, J. Marra, C. Zervas, and S. Gill, 2014: Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency Changes Around the United States. A far distance to markets, low population density, and an abundance of natural resources are distinguishing features of rural places. Figure 3. they call it the gulf coastal plain because it close to the gulf of Mexico:} People also asked. Winter air temperature extremes (for example, freezing and chilling events) constrain the northern limit of many tropical and subtropical species.30,48,127,132,135,138,139,140,141,142,143,144,145,148,149,150,152,166,167,168,169,170,172,173,174,175,176,177,178 In the future, warmer winter temperatures are expected to facilitate the northward movement of cold-sensitive species, often at the expense of cold-tolerant species.132,135,142,145,149,150,152,166,169,173,179 Certain ecosystems are located near thresholds where small changes in winter air temperature regimes can trigger comparatively large and abrupt landscape-scale ecological changes (i.e., ecological regime shifts).135,145,152, Changing fire regimes are expected to have a large impact on natural systems. As building and rebuilding in flood-prone areas continue, the risks of the kinds of major losses seen in these events will continue to grow. Virgina Products and industries Flashcards | Quizlet State of Louisiana, . The differing trends in hot days and warm nights reflect the seasonal differences in average daily maximum and average daily minimum temperature trends. U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Washington, DC, 23 pp. doi: Smee, D. L., J. For example, since the end of the last glacial maximum (about 19,000 years agothe most recent period of maximum ice extent),121 forests in the region have been transformed by warming temperatures, sea level rise, and glacial retreat.122,123 Spruce species that were once present in the regions forests have moved northward and have been replaced by oaks and other less cold-tolerant tree species that have expanded from the south.124 And along the coast, freeze-sensitive mangrove forests and other tropical coastal species have been expanding northward and upslope since the last glacial maximum.125,126,127,128,129, In the coming decades and centuries, climate change will continue to transform many ecosystems throughout the Southeast,6,130,131,132,133,134,135 which would affect many of the societal benefits these ecosystems provide. Carter, L., A. Terando, K. Dow, K. Hiers, K.E. Service Assessment. Extreme rainfall events have increased in frequency and intensity in the Southeast, and there is high confidence they will continue to increase in the future (Figure 19.3).19 The region, as a whole, has experienced increases in the number of days with more than 3 inches of precipitation (Figure 19.3) and a 16% increase in observed 5-year maximum daily precipitation (the amount falling in an event expected to occur only once every 5 years).19 Both the frequency and severity of extreme precipitation events are projected to continue increasing in the region under both lower and higher scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). It was developed in partnership with the Lowlander Center, a local nongovernmental organization with a long-standing relationship with the Tribe and other scientists, researchers, and planners. Sixty-one percent of major Southeast cities are exhibiting some aspects of worsening heat waves, which is a higher percentage than any other region of the country.12 The urban heat island effect (cities that are warmer than surrounding rural areas, especially at night) adds to the impact of heat waves in cities (Ch. B. Meylan, P. A. Meylan, J. Figure 2. The Southeasts diverse natural systems, which provide many benefits to society, will be transformed by climate change (very likely, high confidence). SSRN, 64 pp. These perigean tides, also known as king tides, occur twice a year and in many cities are causing what has been called nuisance or recurrent flooding (referred to herein as high tide flooding). Christensen, N. L., 1981: Fire regimes in southeastern ecosystems. Indirect impacts and costs are difficult to calculate and would add to the totals. The Coastal Plains - The Regions of Texas 1 U.S. Census Bureau. 8: Coastal, KM 2; Ch. Coral elevation and volume in the Florida Keys have been declining in recent decades,245 and present-day temperatures in the region are already close to bleaching thresholds; hence, it is likely that many of the remaining coral reefs in the Southeast region will be lost in the coming decades.246,247 In addition to warming temperatures, accelerated ocean acidification is also expected to contribute to coral reef mortality and decline.248,249 When coral reefs are lost, coastal communities lose the many benefits provided by these valuable ecosystems, including lost tourism opportunities, a decline in fisheries, and a decrease in wave protection.246,247. Camp, and L. Dundon, 2015: Assessing the vulnerability of Tennessee transportation assets to extreme weather. Zhou, Y., and J. M. Shepherd, 2010: Atlanta's urban heat island under extreme heat conditions and potential mitigation strategies. Tampa Bay Water, the largest wholesale water utility in the Southeast, is coordinating with groups including the Florida Water and Climate Alliance to study the impact of climate change on its ability to provide clean water in the future.46,47 Spartanburg Water, in South Carolina, is reinforcing the ability of the utility to cope with, and recover from disruption, trends and variability in order to maintain services.48 Similarly, the Seminole Tribe of Florida, which provides drinking and wastewater services, assessed flooding and sea level rise threats to their water infrastructure and developed potential adaptation measures.49 The development of green water infrastructure (using natural hydrologic features to manage water and provide environmental and community benefits), such as the strategies promoted in the City of Atlanta Climate Action Plan, is one way to adapt to future water management needs. However, this trend in part reflects how rural communities that experience significant population growth often get reclassified as metropolitan themselves. Coastal Plain's industry is EPA 430-R-15-001. Easterling, D. R., J. R. Arnold, T. Knutson, K. E. Kunkel, A. N. LeGrande, L. R. Leung, R. S. Vose, D. E. Waliser, and M. F. Wehner, 2017: Precipitation Change in the United States. Increasing precipitation and extreme weather events will likely impact roads, freight rail, and passenger rail, which will likely have cascading effects across the region. Avery, M. L., R. M. Engeman, K. L. Keacher, J. S. Humphrey, W. E. Bruce, T. C. Mathies, and R. E. Mauldin, 2010: Cold weather and the potential range of invasive Burmese pythons. For example, a rural municipality can increase tax rates to benefit local schools. Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system Our State Geography Rep. WO-91. Voiland, A., 2017: Hot water ahead for Hurricane Irma. U.S. The storm tracked up the west coast of Florida, impacting both coasts of the Florida peninsula with 35 feet of inundation from Cape Canaveral north to the FloridaGeorgia border and even further, impacting coastal areas of Georgia and South Carolina with high tides and storm surge that reached 35 feet. Mitchell, R. J., L. K. Kirkman, S. D. Pecot, C. A. Wilson, B. J. Palik, and L. R. Boring, 1999: Patterns and controls of ecosystem function in longleaf pine-wiregrass savannas. The combined effects of changing extreme rainfall events and sea level rise are already increasing flood frequencies, which impacts property values and infrastructure viability, particularly in coastal cities. 1997. Kreye, J. K., J. M. Varner, J. K. Hiers, and J. Mola, 2013: Toward a mechanism for eastern North American forest mesophication: Differential litter drying across 17 species. Of the $50 billion, approximately $30$35 billion accounts for wind and flood damage to a combination of residential and commercial properties, automobiles, and boatswith 80%90% of this cost felt in Florida. Coral reefs are biologically diverse ecosystems that provide many societal benefits, including coastal protection from waves, habitat for fish, and recreational and tourism opportunities.238,239 However, coral reef mortality in the Florida Keys and across the globe has been very high in recent decades, due in part to warming ocean temperatures, nutrient enrichment, overfishing, and coastal development.240,241,242,243,244 Small increases in ocean temperature can cause corals to expel the symbiotic algae upon which they depend for nourishment. Martin, J. H., and L. W. McEachron, 1996: Historical annotated review of winter kills of marine organisms in Texas bays. | Risky Business Project, New York, 109 pp. Although the agricultural output has been on the Products Coastal Plains These factors restrict the potential to strongly associate declines in agricultural and forest productivity with the level of potential economic impact. As a result, the ecological resources that people depend on for livelihood, protection, and well-being are increasingly at risk, and future generations can expect to experience and interact with natural systems that are much different than those that we see today (very likely, high confidence). 2017,103 Box 9.1). Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana, 2017: Louisiana's Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast. Pierce, D. W., D. R. Cayan, and B. L. Thrasher, 2014: Statistical downscaling using Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA). For example, by the end of the century, annual oyster harvests in the Southeast are projected to decline between 20% (19%22%) under a lower scenario (RCP4.5) and 46% (44%48%) under a higher scenario (RCP8.5), leading to projected price increases of 48% (RCP4.5) to 140% (RCP8.5).35 Projected warming ocean temperatures, sea level rise, and ocean and coastal acidification are raising concern over future harvests (Ch. 20: U.S. Caribbean, KM 3). Starr, G., C. L. Staudhammer, H. W. Loescher, R. Mitchell, A. Whelan, J. K. Hiers, and J. J. O'Brien, 2015: Time series analysis of forest carbon dynamics: Recovery of Pinus palustris physiology following a prescribed fire. There is high confidence that climate change (e.g., rising temperatures, changing fire regimes, rising sea levels, and more extreme rainfall and drought) will very likely affect agricultural and forest products industries, potentially resulting in economic impacts. Models are limited in their ability to incorporate adaptation that may reduce losses. The core of the states peanut, cotton, and vegetable industry is here. Reduction of existing stresses can increase resilience (very likely, high confidence). USGS Professional Paper 1815. Despite warming, low winter temperatures may prevent permanent year-round establishment of the virus across the region.31 Strategies such as management of urban wetlands have resulted in lower dengue fever risk in Puerto Rico.32 Similar adaptation strategies have the potential to limit vector-borne disease in southeastern cities, particularly those cities with characteristics similar to Caribbean cities that have already implemented vector control strategies (Ch. Over the last century, invasive insects, logging, and pathogens have transformed forests in the region.192 Warmer temperatures and insects have led to the loss of cold-adapted boreal communities, and flammable, fire-adapted tree species have been replaced by less flammable, fire-sensitive speciesa process known as mesophication.193,194 However, intense fires, like those observed in 2016, can halt the mesophication process. WebThese three counties are located in the Atlantic Coastal Plain and are easy places to reach by water. A. Martinich, K. C. Shouse, and C. W. Wobus, 2013: Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: Comparison of two scenarios. Like urban centers, rural areas with significant manufacturing bases develop commerce hubs and advanced supply chains in specific industries to compete with producers globally. Flood events in Charleston, South Carolina, have been increasing, and by 2045 the city is projected to face nearly 180 tidal floods (flooding in coastal areas at high tide) per year, as compared to 11 floods per year in 2014.45 These floods affect tourism, transportation, and the economy as a whole. The amount of unpredictability in future projected rates of sea level rise is likely caused by a range of future climate scenarios projections and rate of ice sheet mass changes. Rapid population growth with associated urbanization and suburbanization over the last several decades has resulted in a more fine-grained forest landscape with smaller and more numerous forest patches.254 Agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, and other major economic sectors are spread across the Southeast region. The Southeasts coastal plain and inland low-lying regions support a rapidly growing population, a tourism economy, critical industries, and important cultural resources that are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts (very likely, very high confidence). Rural areas are, more than ever, integrated into a regional economy and tied to nearby urban centers. Gen. Tech. Addington, R. N., S. J. Hudson, J. K. Hiers, M. D. Hurteau, T. F. Hutcherson, G. Matusick, and J. M. Parker, 2015: Relationships among wildfire, prescribed fire, and drought in a fire-prone landscape in the south-eastern United States. Littell, J. S., D. L. Peterson, K. L. Riley, Y. Liu, and C. H. Luce, 2016: A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, various pp. The Georgia Piedmont lies between the Blue Ridge Mountains and the Upper Coastal Plain. Many of the people who live here still farm tobacco, corn, wheat and soybeans, UNC, Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research, Chapel Hill, NC. Already poor regions, including those found in the Southeast, are expected to continue incurring greater losses than elsewhere in the United States. Resources and Industries - The Coastal Plains The award provides the Tribe with a historic opportunity to reunite a community.79 While the application to relocate was initiated by the Tribe, the relocation funds now are for all residents of Isle de Jean Charles, according to the Louisiana State Office of Community Development.75. The precise impacts on cities are difficult to project. 13: Air Quality, KM 1). The decline is due in large part to land loss and flooding driven by climate change, extreme weather, and unsustainable development practices, which stem from oil and gas production, extraction, and water-management practices.74 This process has resulted in family separation, spreading them across southern Louisiana.75 In addition, the Tribe continues to lose parts of its livelihood and culture, including sacred places, cultural sites and practices, healing plants, traditional foods, and lifeways.76, The Third National Climate Assessment77 discussed the initial plans for resettlement of the Isle de Jean Charles community. NOAA National Weather Service (NWS), Key West, FL, accessed February 27. U. S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 16 pp. Miller, R., D. Arthur, B. Barami, A. Breck, S. Costa, K. Lewis, K. McCoy, and E. Morrison, 2016: Hampton Roads Climate Impact Quantification Initiative: Baseline Assessment of the Transportation Assets & Overview of Economic Analyses Useful in Quantifying Impacts. Cavanaugh, K. C., J. R. Kellner, A. J. Forde, D. S. Gruner, J. D. Parker, W. Rodriguez, and I. C. Feller, 2014: Poleward expansion of mangroves is a threshold response to decreased frequency of extreme cold events. Stone, 2015: Rising heat wave trends in large US cities. Plains generally have fertile soil and are attractive to settlement as they are easy to reach, provide good roadbuilding, and have good farmland. Newly emerging pathogens could increase risk of disease in the future, while successful adaptations could reduce public health risk. Barbier, E. B., S. D. Hacker, C. Kennedy, E. W. Koch, A. C. Stier, and B. R. Silliman, 2011: The value of estuarine and coastal ecosystem services. Southeastern cities may be more vulnerable than cities in other regions of the United States due to the climate being more conducive to some vector-borne diseases, the presence of multiple large coastal cities at low elevation that are vulnerable to flooding and storms, and a rapidly growing urban and coastal population.22,295,296, Many city and county governments, utilities, and other government and service organizations have already begun to plan and prepare for the impacts of climate change (e.g., Gregg et al. Parker, L. E., and J. T. Abatzoglou, 2016: Projected changes in cold hardiness zones and suitable overwinter ranges of perennial crops over the United States. The Miami area nearly matched the 2015 record of 18 days.61 This increase in high tide flooding frequency is directly tied to sea level rise. Dorcas, M. E., J. D. Willson, R. N. Reed, R. W. Snow, M. R. Rochford, M. A. Miller, W. E. Meshaka, P. T. Andreadis, F. J. Mazzotti, C. M. Romagosa, and K. M. Hart, 2012: Severe mammal declines coincide with proliferation of invasive Burmese pythons in Everglades National Park. Williams, K., K. C. Ewel, R. P. Stumpf, F. E. Putz, and T. W. Workman, 1999: Sea-level rise and coastal forest retreat on the West Coast of Florida, USA. Increases in precipitation and shifts in wind trajectories may reduce future health impacts of ground level ozone in the Southeast,35 but warmer and drier autumns are expected to result in a lengthening of the period of ozone exposure.38 Warmer August temperatures in the Southeast from 1988 to 2011 were associated with increased human sensitivity to ground-level ozone.39. Anderson, D. G., T. G. Bissett, S. J. Yerka, J. J. Infrastructure, particularly roads, bridges, coastal properties, and urban drainage, is vulnerable to climate change and climate-related events (see Key Message 2) (see also Ch. Cooling degree days (a measure of the need for air conditioning [cooling] based on daily average temperatures rising above a standard temperatureoften 65F) nearly double, while heating degree days (a measure of the need for heating) decrease by over a third (Figure 19.22). Wells typically yield 5-35 gallons per minute. Peaches also require warm temperatures at specific times during their development.259 If the warm temperatures come too early, the chill periods could be too short or the peach blossoms can flower too soon and be in danger of late freeze impacts. Downsides of this population gain include higher costs of living driven by increased demand for housing and greater traffic congestion. Maycock, and B.C. I. Aboveground net primary productivity. Scientific Investigations Map 3381. Ebi, K. L., and J. Nealon, 2016: Dengue in a changing climate. Isle de Jean Charles Tribe, 2017: Bienvenue, Aiokpanchi, Welcome to Isle de Jean Charles [web site]. Lal, P., J. R. R. Alavalapati, and E. D. Mercer, 2011: Socio-economic impacts of climate change on rural United States. Amekudzi, A., M. Crane, D. Springstead, D. Rose, and T. Batac, 2013: Transit climate change adaptation assessment for the Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority. Climate model simulations of future conditions project increases in both temperature and extreme precipitation. Easterling, K.E. Many southeastern cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change compared to cities in other regions, with expected impacts to infrastructure and human health. By the end of the century, over one-half billion labor hours could be lost from extreme heat-related impacts. Evans, J. M., J. Gambill, R. J. McDowell, P. W. Prichard, and C. S. Hopkinson, 2016: Tybee Island: Sea level rise adaptation plan. McEwan, R. W., J. M. Dyer, and N. Pederson, 2011: Multiple interacting ecosystem drivers: Toward an encompassing hypothesis of oak forest dynamics across eastern North America. There is very high confidence that southeastern cities will likely be impacted by climate change, especially in the areas of infrastructure and human health. Poloczanska, E. S., C. J. Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA, 64 pp. Inland areas were also impacted by winds and heavy rains with river gauges and high-water marks showing upwards of 26 feet above ground level.100 The winds eventually fell below tropical storm strength near Columbus, Georgia. Bentz, B. J., and A. M. Jnsson, 2015: Chapter 13: Modeling bark beetle responses to climate change. Rural communities do not develop in a vacuum. Further refinement of these focal areas occurred in conjunction with the public Regional Engagement Workshop, held on the campus of North Carolina State University in March 2017 and in six satellite locations across the Southeast region. Natural systems in the region will have to become resistant and resilient to both too little water and too much water. Acadiana Planning Commission, 2018: APC Board allocates $25 million in HMGP funding to regional flood mitigation projects. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Atmospheric Programs, Washington, DC, 93 pp.
