It remains to be seen whether any of the current crop of GOP candidates, many of whom are running as staunch Trump loyalists and some of whom have endorsed the Big Lie of the stolen 2020 election, will suffer a similar fate. John Fetterman. Looking for Bidens Approval Rating Map? We got to 57 percent in Pennsylvania. Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. Louisiana the reason I will not put Louisiana in sure-shot Republican is Louisiana does have a record of voting Democrat in gubernatorial elections. Based on the results of my analysis of Senate contests between 2012 and 2020 in Table 2, I calculated the models expected results of all 35 Senate contests taking place this year. The data in Table 1 indicate that a couple of the key factors influencing the outcomes of Senate contests during these years were incumbency and state presidential partisanship. Its about 15 months for the mid-term elections in the United States. Voters in Kentucky will decide whether to approve an amendment that would reject abortion rights in the State Constitution. See the Senate forecast * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous Alicia Parlapiano Senate Centrist anti-fascist and anti-communist. Nate Cohn Results Heres the state of the closest races: Lt. Gov. Were forecasting the race to control the Senate and House, as well as each partys chance of winning the 36 governors seats up for election. Democratic incumbents (87%) and Republican incumbents (88%) were equally successful. Senate Election Forecast 2022: Ratings, Predictions & Key Races Advertisement The Senate Remains a Toss-Up Last updated Nov. 6, 2022, 9:19 p.m. Web2022 Senate - State Projections. Albert Sun All 3 predictors had highly significant effects, with state presidential partisanship having the strongest influence. Politics: Midterm Elections 2022 Senate Predictions Elissa Slotkin, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Michigans Seventh Congressional District. The outcomes of the 6-8 contests that will most likely determine control of the U.S. Senate in the next Congress will depend to a large extent on the individual candidates and their campaigns. v. t. e. The 2022 United States Senate election in Illinois was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Illinois . We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. GOP Rep. Don Bacons race is one to watch. 3 See also. An example of data being processed may be a unique identifier stored in a cookie. Looking for the National Picture for the 2022 Senate Forecast? With Republicans enjoying a consistent lead of 2-3 points on the generic ballot according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average, the results indicated that the GOP was very likely to gain enough seats in November to take control of the House of Representatives. RealClearPolitics - 2022 Election Maps - Battle for the In a previous article in the Crystal Ball, I examined the outlook for the 2022 House and Senate elections at the national level based on the generic ballot forecasting model. Michael Bennet and Patty Murray, respectively, to fall. RCP Senate Map Race Changes. Now were talking about expansion. Visit. You deserve to hear our thinking. You know you are right when you are hated by the left and the right. Ron DeSantis, a hard-right conservative, is facing Representative Charlie Crist, a former Republican governor who switched parties. His Republican challenger, Herschel Walker, is backed by Donald Trump. Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Wiley Nickel, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent North Carolinas 13th Congressional District. But so far, voters are rejecting an effort to deny abortion rights. , Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, defeated Doug Mastriano, a Trump-backed election denier, in the race for Pennsylvanias governor. Andrew Fischer Republicans successfully defended 12 of their 16 open seats for a success rate of 75% while Democrats successfully defended 12 of their 17 open seats for a success rate of 71%. 2020 comparison maps exclude places where third-party candidates won more than 5 percent of the vote. Theres no question that our orientation this cycle should be around geographic and demographic expansion. Explore the full list of features on our site map. Miles Coleman, and Larry J. Sabato. We and our partners share information on your use of this website to help improve your experience. The consent submitted will only be used for data processing originating from this website. An even greater discrepancy between predicted and actual results occurred in the 2017 Alabama special election in which ultra-conservative former state Supreme Court justice Roy Moore won a runoff primary against appointed incumbent Luther Strange to win the Republican nomination. With neither party holding a clear advantage, control of the Senate will likely come down to a half dozen or so competitive contests in which the strengths and weaknesses of individual candidates could be crucial. The polls just closed in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia. Looking for the national forecast? After facing credible charges of child molestation, Moore went on to lose the general election to Democrat Doug Jones, a civil rights lawyer and former U.S. Attorney. You write that Bidens argument for reelection is simple: Hes done a good job, and the country is better off. For that to be the case, Rosenberg must be right about his core idea: Despite pundits tendency to overestimate MAGA, its rise has given Democrats a major opening to expand their coalition. Is the nations political realignment driving a state or congressional district from one partys column to the other? That was mainly because Republicans currently hold 21 of the 35 seats that are up for election in 2022. The party that wins two of the These charts show how our forecasts have changed over the course of the night. Click here! Every day, it simulates the election 50,000 times. Lazaro Gamio Pennsylvania's new congressional map is generally good news for Democrats except for Rep. Susan Wild, whose Lehigh Valley seat got tougher for her. , Angie Craig, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Minnesotas Second Congressional District. Senate Polls Note: Seat estimates may not sum to the total number of seats because of third-party candidates. The most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country might be Rep. Mike Garcia, whose district north of Los Angeles voted for President Joe Biden by 13 points. Nov. 14, 2022, Three Republican House candidates who have supported QAnon underperformed compared with Trump, despite most House Republicans outperforming the former president. When reported data comes in that is not what we expected, our model will update and incorporate this new data. We got to 55 percent in Michigan. Read more In several of these races, the discrepancy between the predicted and actual results was quite large. Three other races, in North Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire, are also expected to be closely contested. Kennedy Elliott . The Democrats should not focus much attention on these states and instead focus on the other states assuming they are on a mission to secure 60 seats, to prevent filibustering of bills. Nov. 8, 2022, Gov. He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. Prediction: Fetterman wins by 1-2%, 50-49 Democrats WISCONSIN: Mandela Barnes vs. Ron Johnson For several years, Johnson indicated he would not seek re-election in 2022, but here I am writing about him. Note: Win probabilities may not add up to 100 because of third-party candidates. WebBattle for the Senate 2022. Georgias Senate race might culminate in a runoff election on Dec. 6 if no candidate receives 50 percent of the vote. GOP Rep. Rick Allen never faced a real threat to his reelection. George Santos, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent New Yorks Third Congressional District. In the current era, Democrats generally have to win contests in Republican-leaning states in order to win a majority of seats in the Senate. Maggie Astor Albert Sun Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment, Republicans have a good chance to pick up at least a seat and take back control of the upper chamber. Mandela Barnes, and there is a close contest for governor. Gov. One of the most highly watched and dissected and forecastedbattles during the 2022 midterm elections is the Senate race. Nov. 9, 2022, John Fetterman, the Democratic candidate for Senate, won by a smaller margin than Josh Shapiro, the Democratic candidate for governor. GOP Rep. Mark Amodei looks safe for reelection after surviving his primary. Here's a list of the ups anddowns: A more competitive national environment and some weaker GOP nominees mean neither party enters the final two months before the election with a significant advantage in the battle for Senate control. Source: Data compiled by author. Maggie Astor Nate Cohn Heres how POLITICOs are different: Weve demystified the midterms taking you inside the races to explore the macro- and micro-trends driving the campaign. Alicia Parlapiano Lazaro Gamio Weve made future-oriented investments in infrastructure and tackling climate change. Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment, Republicans have a good chance to pick up at least a seat and take back control of the upper chamber. Latest predictions for the House 2022 Elections, updated daily. 2022 Senate Elections Model - Decision Desk HQ 2022 Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. Hi there. In the counties where most of the vote is in, Senator Ron Johnson is running ahead of Trump. This discrepancy reflects the small state bias of the Senate, which results in an overrepresentation of Republican-leaning states. ADHD is an illness, not a lifestyle. Tonight, our election forecast will show live estimates for which party is favored to win control in the Senate and House. The more data we have, the more influence election day data has on the forecast. 1.2 Close races. Heres how it works Representative Tom Malinowski, a second-term incumbent, conceded his race for re-election to his Republican opponent, Tom Kean Jr. Nov. 8, 2022, These charts show how the reported vote margin (the dashed line) compares with our estimated final margin (the solid line, surrounded by bands of uncertainty) over time. Senate Third, he would somehow have to obscure the rightward lurch he just went through in the current legislative session the six-week abortion ban, the permitless carry, the assaults on public education and diversity. Nov. 10, 2022, More than 200,000 Georgia voters cast ballots for Brian Kemp, Republican candidate for governor, but did not vote for Herschel Walker in the Senate race. Though Republicans have put forward weak candidates in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia, the wind is behind their backs heading into November 8. Were getting results for ballot measures related to abortion and reproductive rights in Kentucky, Michigan and Vermont. Democrats also won the Governors office, State Senate, and appear poised to take the State Assembly, and voters affirmed abortion rights in the state. Based on current events and the understanding that senators are elected by the states popular vote rather electoral districts, I will make my predictions. Adjusted Poll Average. What all of these examples demonstrate, however, is that exceptionally popular or unpopular candidates or unusual circumstances can sometimes produce results in Senate contests that are well out of line with what would be expected based on factors such as presidential partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment. 2022 Senate Sabato's Crystal Ball - Center for Politics Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly has opened a lead over Republican Blake Masters. Several interesting patterns are evident in these data. Greg Abbott brushed off a well-funded challenge from Beto ORourke, winning a third term as Texas governor. People are ready to fight. Polls Underestimated. . Nov. 8, 2022, Republicans are favored to win the open Senate races in North Carolina and Ohio, but if Democrats have a better-than-expected day, these are two places we might see evidence of it. Here are my predictions how the races will pan out and some points of caution Democrats should note to secure the Senate in 2022. Toggle Predictions subsection 1.1 Statewide. Democratic Gov. According to the results displayed in Table 5, only a small minority of Senate contests in 2022 are likely to be highly competitive. I'm Steve Shepard, and with the help of my smart colleagues Much like the safe Republican states, the following states are a sure-shot for Democrats. Nov. 9, 2022, Democrats and Republicans each need to win three more competitive Senate seats to win control of the chamber (in addition to the races they are expected to win most easily). , Brian Kemp, the Republican governor of Georgia, defeated his Democratic challenger, Stacey Abrams, for a second time. Christine Zhang Nov. 8, 2022, Rural counties in Virginias 7th district are counting votes more quickly than its most populous and left-leaning county, Prince William. Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado, a Democrat, was elected to a third term, holding off a strong challenge from a Republican newcomer. Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto faces a tough race against Republican Adam Laxalt. For example, in the 2012 Indiana Senate election, the Republican candidate was favored by just over 7 points but the Democratic candidate won by almost 6 points. In Arizona, 604 likely voters were surveyed from Oct. 24 to Oct. 26. NV ) Create Your Own Map. Tonight: follow live results and our forecast from Georgia as the final Senate seat in the 2022 midterm elections is decided. We and our partners use data for Personalised ads and content, ad and content measurement, audience insights and product development. Laura Kelly is Democrats' most vulnerable incumbent on the ballot this year. Finally, there is a clear midterm effect on Senate elections, with candidates from the party occupying the White House experiencing an average penalty of 5.4 points of margin. Based on the above assumptions and expected results, the Democrats are set to gain 6 seats, bringing their tally to 56 seats. If a Trump cheerleader is the chosen candidate, it is a Democrat guaranteed victory. and Pa., competitive state races with consequences for abortion remain too close to call. Nov. 8, 2022, Its still early, but Fetterman is running ahead of Biden in five Pennsylvania counties that have reported nearly all of their votes. Nov. 8, 2022, Pennsylvania is home to a close Senate race between Lt. Gov. Soon, 14 Revolutionary War soldiers will finally rest in peace, Floridas book-ban frenzy targets Nora Roberts, and shes not happy, How Trump made it cool for Republicans to hate their own party, Regulators seize ailing First Republic Bank, sell remains to JPMorgan. Maggie Astor US midterms 2022 Results Senate House Democrats retain control of the Senate Republican hopes of picking up seats in Arizona and Nevada fall short House 2022 On Monday, we will launch our Georgia Senate Runoff Predictions. 0 Days to Election. Our mean seat projection is 51 (R) and 49 (D). This finding reflects the increasing nationalization of Senate elections in the 21st century. There is also an unexpectedly competitive Senate race in Utah between Senator Mike Lee, a Republican, and Evan McMullin, an independent. If the two parties split those six seats evenly, Republicans will win a 51-49 majority. The reason we need to do what youre describing which is to go into places that werent available to us before is that we need this victory to be as big as possible. Nov. 9, 2022, Maryland and Missouri voted to legalize recreational marijuana for people 21 and older, while voters in Arkansas, North Dakota and South Dakota rejected similar measures. 2022 Prediction 2022 Election Forecast: Ratings, Predictions & Key Races Pennsylvanias Senate race now leans Democratic, according to our estimates. Wisconsins Senate race is leaning toward Senator Ron Johnson, his chambers most endangered Republican incumbent, according to our estimates. The 2022 Missouri State Senate election took place on November 8, 2022, as part of the biennial 2022 United States elections. Tony Evers is seeking a second term in one of the country's most-closely divided states. Senate 2022 State Projections Race to the WH With the 2022 midterms just hours away, Senate races in the countrys battleground states look closer than ever. Here are my predictions for the top seven most competitive Senate races in the 2022 midterm election. GOP Rep. Steve Chabot survived 2020, but Ohio''s new congressional map could be too steep a hill for him to climb. The results are displayed in Table 5. 2022 The polls are now closed in Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, New York, Wisconsin and several other states. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Duckworth was first elected in 2016, defeating Republican incumbent Mark Kirk. , Don Bacon, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Nebraskas Second Congressional District. House Democrats' most iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can overcome a challenging political environment. Ron DeSantis over Democratic opponent Charlie Crist by a margin of 11 percentage points. Nov. 8, 2022, In Kentucky, voters will decide whether to approve a constitutional amendment that would effectively ensure the implementation of a near-total abortion ban. GOP Rep. David Rouzer is coasting to reelection. I will still predict that Democrats will retain the seat, assuming Chris Sununu will run again for governor and a candidate with Trumps blessings runs. Eight of those counties that voted for Biden in 2020 shifted 16 points to the right in the race for governor, and 12 points in the Senate race. But this work can get done during the campaign. This finding indicates that Republican candidates have underperformed in Senate elections relative to what we would have expected based on state presidential partisanship, incumbency, and election type. final pre-election results projection, click here. By 9 p.m., the polls will have closed in a majority of states. As a rule, when the composition estimate is steady in the presence of new results, our forecast is more trustworthy. As of now, its considered a toss Today, Democrats control the U.S. Senate by the slimmest of margins Vice President Kamala Harris serves as the tiebreaking vote in a chamber thats divided 50-50. Nate Cohn In the current 50-50 Senate, only 6 members represent states that voted for the opposing partys presidential candidate in 2020 3 Democrats (Ohios Sherrod Brown, West Virginias Joe Manchin, and Montanas Jon Tester) and 3 Republicans (Maines Susan Collins, Wisconsins Ron Johnson, and Pennsylvanias Pat Toomey). Ron DeSantis won re-election in Florida, cementing Republicans power in a state that was once a key battleground. *, Maine 2022 United States Senate elections , Gov. It's one thing to tell you who's likely to win POLITICO's Election Forecast also tells you why. Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens survived a member-versus-member primary in August likely the biggest obstacle to her reelection. Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia is one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the Senate. We expect the remaining vote that will decide control of Congress will take days, if not weeks, to count. Nov. 9, 2022, Majority-Hispanic counties in Florida voted to reelect Gov. Nov. 9, 2022, The feared Democratic collapse along the Rio Grande didnt materialize. Lazaro Gamio We just got all the way up to 55 percent in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race. The greater success of Democratic candidates in states won by the opposing partys presidential candidate was crucial to their ability to win a slight majority of Senate races during these years. Senate Election Forecast 2022: Ratings, Predictions & Key Republicans and MAGA have left a lot of political real estate for us to go claim if we are aggressive about it. Our model predicted that the Republican nominee would win the race by about 16 points, but Moore ended up losing to Jones by 1.6 points. , Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire was re-elected, holding on to one of Democrats most vulnerable seats in a tight contest for Senate control. Weve demonstrated that in the current political environment, we can grow the coalition. Can a moderate Republican keep holding on to a blue-trending suburban seat? We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. Senate elections have become firmly yoked to their states presidential leanings. Nov. 8, 2022, Gov. Arizonas closely watched races for Senate and governor remained too close to call in the state, where 400,000 ballots in Maricopa County await counting. I then applied the findings from these earlier elections to the 35 contests taking place this year in order to predict their outcomes. The Economists 2022 midterms forecast | The Economist RCP Gov Map Race Changes. Odds displayed in the graphics may not match numeric odds due to rounding. But 2022 will be a steeper climb. The candidate listed may change based on primary results or other factors. Yet Democrats often refrain from challenging right-wing culture-warring, as if they believe those are losing issues. We rated every race in play in 2022. The predictions for races expected to be relatively close, with predicted margins of less than 10 points, were only correct a little over two-thirds of the time. Our newest ratings and updates, Last updated on November 17th 2022 at 6:30 am. The latest Last updated Nov. 8, 2022 Our final forecast for the Senate is a toss-up, with Republicans slightly favored over Democrats. Speaking of DeSantiss rightward lurch, Bidens reelection video cites GOP book bans and attacks on LGBTQ rights as threats to American freedom and equality. Forecast Model Created & Designed by Logan Phillipsif(typeof ez_ad_units!='undefined'){ez_ad_units.push([[728,90],'racetothewh_com-medrectangle-3','ezslot_3',639,'0','0'])};__ez_fad_position('div-gpt-ad-racetothewh_com-medrectangle-3-0'); Looking for the National Picture for the 2022 Senate Forecast? But poor candidates could hurt their chances, as they have in some other recent Senate races. Todays voting will decide the balance of power in Congress. Follow the latest election results here . It was really a late-covid manifestation, and as covid has receded in peoples lives, the conditions that created that conversation have evaporated. Races to watch include those in the 17th, 18th, 19th and 22nd Congressional Districts, as well as the contest for governor. 2022 United States Senate elections - Wikipedia Alicia Parlapiano Compared to Kemps reported votes, Walkers fell short in every county, but especially in the Atlanta area and its suburbs. In both 2012 and 2018, Manchin far outperformed the expected vote for a Democratic candidate in a state that Donald Trump carried twice by enormous margins. I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon. Glenn Youngkin flipped the following fall. Our model currently predicts that Republicans have a 59.3% chance of controlling the Senate. RealClearPolitics - 2022 Election Maps - Battle for the We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. Dont expect quick results in either race; officials in Alaska wont finish counting absentee ballots for about two weeks. The Republican nominee, Richard Mourdock, a staunch conservative, defeated the more moderate incumbent, Richard Lugar, in the GOP primary. Republican Adam Laxalt is ahead in GOP-commissioned polling, though independent surveys still give Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto a chance. In all likelihood that will be the case again in 2022 a handful of close contests will decide which party controls the upper chamber. Polls are now closed in Hawaii. In North Carolinas Senate race, Representative Ted Budd, a Trump-endorsed Republican, is very likely to win, according to our estimates.
